The trend continues – common numismatic material remains soft, bullion prices are near cyclical lows while fresh, original, collector coins sell quickly at current levels and top rarities in very high condition (such as Pogue Auction coins) are almost exclusively selling to collectors.
This was confirmed at the last major coin show on the East Coast—the tri annual Baltimore Whitman Coin Show. While most dealers seemed busy, many dealers did not have a very good show. Some of the frequent collectors were not present and those that were only purchased what they specialized in with few impulse purchases.
And of course many dealers are still loaded up with inventory with limited positive cash flow. Auction sales seem pretty healthy at today’s market with high sale through rates but dealer purchases seemed to be limited to immediate needs.
Pouge II Sale Indicates Market Solidification
Unlike the Pouge I sale last May, Pouge II on September 30th was an exercise in futility for dealers looking for bargains. There weren’t any.
At Pouge I we examined over 100 coins and were able to buy 10 for inventory. Those coins had dropped through the cracks and were good deals. We have only two coins left.
But at Pouge II all the coins went for “all the money”. Even the high four- figure and low five- figure coins. We expected that of the really rare and finest known coins, but even the second tier coins did well enough that few if any dealers were able to speculate on good value coins.
The message to take from this phenomenon is that nice original high grade and rare coins have solid collector buyers at current levels. This is very important because it could mean that the market has stabilized and is solid and we could be witnessing the first sustainable rise in the rare coin market that could last for several years!
Gold Prices continue to be Very Soft — Time to load up on Semi-Numismatic gold
Despite global demand for gold 8% over this quarter last year, speculative sellers and the continued liquidation of long positions continues to beat down gold prices. Low energy costs, a strong dollar and next month’s probable interest rate hikes have taken their toll on the precious metals.
We believe we will see a possible cyclical (since 2011) low in the near future before gold begins its long bull market which is inevitable with a virtually full employment and stable domestic economy. Money won’t sit on the sidelines nor continue to fuel the equities market forever…
Semi-Numismatic Coins at very Low levels
I believe in a couple of years we will look back at this time and wish we would have purchased more of these coins. Certified MS64 $20 Saints are just 20% over melt; and gem MS-65s are only 50% over melt. And gold bullion values are low!
You will not be able to buy gem Uncirculated MS-65 Saints at $1700 for very long….
Even if you are not ready to commit substantial sums to their purchase, I urge you to start to accumulate some PCGS no spot specimens now followed by some dollar cost averaging in the future.
High End Specialty Areas Remain Strong
Both pioneer gold coins and high -end U.S. Type currency remain solid, if not robust at current levels. For the most part we and other dealers have been shut out of purchasing some condition census (top half dozen specimens) and great rarities in recent auctions.
There is also a problem with availability (supply). We have not been offered any collections of pioneer recently and only one major collection has come on the market in ten years. So when nice original specimen come onto the market, there is plenty of competition.
Contrary to the rest of the market, this is a classic case of supply not keeping up with demand. And we all know what happens to prices when that occurs…
Bullion and semi-numismatic coin offer Extended until end of year
Because of our well- received promotion offering to acquire bullion coins for just 1% above our cost and individually examined semi-numismatic coins (no spots or discoloration or over graded specimens) for 2.5% over cost, we are extending it until the end of the year. Minimum order is $10,000 but shipping is included.
Have a healthy and fun holiday season,
Don Are http://paper-writer.org similar to academic and nonacademic periodicals
